With the new year just around the corner, it's time to look at what 2024 will be for us.
During the year 2023, the fragile international balance has been called into question. In April, India overtook China as the world's most populous country. In July and August, coups in Niger and Gabon brought a total of 10 coup attempts in Africa's "coup belt" since 2020.
On top of this, a war for the control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a region in dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia since the 1990s and recently integrated into Azeri territory. A second key event took place on October 7. The terrorist group Hamas launched the deadliest massacre of civilians in Israel's history in a surprise attack from the Gaza Strip.
In 2024, a crucial year lies ahead where more than 3.7 billion people will be able to vote in elections in 70 countries. There are calls as transcendental as those from the US, the EU, Taiwan, Indonesia, Russia, Venezuela, Mexico or India, whose results will have a global impact. In this article, an analysis of several of these key elections and conferences will be made.
The Republic of China (Taiwan): a new president in a key state
On January 13, presidential elections are held on this island, where in recent years, Beijing has increased pressure.
With three presidential candidates , Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) favorite Lai Ching-te is anathema to China. Ching-te who promises to continue the determined defense of the island's sovereignty, established by the current president, Tsai Ing-wen. In second place is Hou Yu-Ih of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), who wants to engage in talks with Beijing. And the third, Ko Wen-je, of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and former mayor of Taipei, offers a middle ground closer to conciliation.
Bangladesh: political turmoil
During 2023, there were anti-government demonstrations called by the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), whose main leaders are imprisoned or exiled. The BNP has threatened to boycott the polls if Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina does not resign and hand over power to a caretaker government before the general election. Hasina is likely to continue her 15-year ironclad rule.
Pakistan: elections under growing instability
In February, Pakistan will have its first general election since the ouster of Imran Khan , the popular but controversial former prime minister, on corruption charges (he denies any wrongdoing). Although he is not a candidate, Khan remains the driving force of his political party, the Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI).
Indonesia: a new president
Indonesia's democracy, now in its fifth round of elections since the collapse of the authoritarian regime in 1998, faces significant challenges ahead of the February 2024 presidential election.
It is important to emphasize that 205 million voters have the right to vote. Of them, 52% are under 40 years old , and almost a quarter belong to Generation Z, born since the late 1990s.
Joko Widodo's second term has been marked by the use of coercion against opponents, including Islamic parties and liberal formations. The army has been reactivated in several spheres of civilian life . However, Widodo still enjoys 75% popularity and it seems that his influence could be decisive.
Indonesian presidential candidate and former military man Prabowo Subianto has increased his leadership. The leadership of Prabowo Subianto, who was expelled from the Army after being accused of human rights violations as head of the special forces (1995-1998), which earned him a ban on entering the United States for years.
Ganjar Pranowo was governor of Central Java for two terms. He won popular support to improve the congested region's infrastructure by approving new data centers and overhauling roads. Ganjar has little experience in foreign or economic policy. . Ganjar has adopted Jokowi's grassroots populism, to gain popularity, with impromptu walks, speaking of his humble origins.
Anies Baswedan was an academic who became the youngest principal of an Islamic university in Indonesia. Anies was governor of Jakarta until the end of his term last year, and continued infrastructure projects started by his predecessors, such as flood control measures and transportation. Of the three, Anies is the most opposed to Jokowi's new capital.
It remains to be seen whether the new President will continue President Jokowi's key legacies, including his commitment to human capital development.
Senegal: an unstable election?
Ten presidential elections are scheduled in Africa in 2024, after this continent suffered eight coups d'état in three years. There are fears that the elections in Senegal, on February 25, will take place under tension .
President Macky Sall, in power since 2012, named Prime Minister Amadou Ba as his candidate in September, a choice that was questioned by members of his own party.
The candidacy of the opposition Ousmane Sonko, who came third in the 2019 presidential election, is on hold, as he is the subject of a legal battle.
Türkiye: a local counterweight to Erdogan?
From humble origins, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has managed to become a political giant who has led Turkey for 20 years and has left his mark on the country more than any other leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
Last May 2023, Erdogan managed to renew his mandate for five more years by defeating the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the closest elections that the ruler has had to contest in two decades.
The first litmus test for Erdogan will be in the local elections, due in March 2024. The government has a good chance of regaining control of the Istanbul mayor's office, which it lost in 2019 to an opposition unity alliance for the first time since who came to power in 2002. A victory for the government will reinforce its momentum in the country.
Ukraine: elections in the middle of war?
For months, Ukraine has been embroiled in a heated debate over whether the country should hold presidential elections in March next year, as originally planned. All elections, including presidential elections, are banned under the country's current martial law, imposed after Russia invaded Ukraine again in 2022.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is weighing the pros and cons of a presidential election in the spring of 2024. His popularity ratings remain very high, although they have fallen slightly since the first year of war.
Iran: a key legislative election?
In 2021, the regime's Guardian Council, a body made up of twelve members appointed directly or indirectly by the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Khamenei disqualified several high-profile figures from running in the presidential election and left the eventual winner, Ebrahim Raisi, without real competition. The lack of moderate and reformist candidates translated into the lowest turnout in history.
In March 2024, Iranians will be able to elect representatives of two institutions - the Majlis ( Islamic Consultative Assembly - Parliament) and the Assembly of Experts (with 88 members who are responsible for electing the Supreme Leader of Iran and supervising his activities). which are considered to have little real influence on the country's policies.
However, the upcoming election campaign deserves to be watched closely for what it may reveal about Ali Khamenei's intentions. Khamenei must decide how to balance concerns about shamefully low turnout, eventual succession, reformist political strategies and the legitimacy of the regime following mass protests over the brutal death of Mahsa Amini.
Russia: towards another term of Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin said he will run again in the 2024 presidential election, a move that is expected to keep him in power until at least 2030. Putin, 71, was elected president of Russia for the first time in 2000 and won four presidential elections. Between 2008 and 2012 he served as prime minister.
The elections will be held over three days, from March 15 to 17, and the winner will take office in May. Voting will also take place in what Russia calls its new territories: parts of Ukraine now controlled by Russian forces. Around 110 million people have the right to vote in Russia, although between 70 and 80 million usually vote.
Putin's new candidacy is possible thanks to a controversial constitutional reform processed in 2020. In recent years, the opposition and civil society were repressed, a policy that increased after the start of the war in Ukraine.
The main opponents are exiled, imprisoned or dead . The government's most prominent critic , Alexei Navalny , has been in prison since 2021 and in December his entourage reported that he was transferred to an unknown location.
The Russian ultra-nationalist Igor Girkin, a supporter of war and in preventive detention awaiting trial for incitement to extremism, declared in November that he wanted to run for president, although he understood that the March elections would be a "farce" with a clear winner.
Former television journalist Yekaterina Duntsova has been disqualified as a candidate in the upcoming Russian presidential election, preventing her from running against Vladimir Putin on a platform of opposition to the war in Ukraine.
Global AI Safety Summit in South Korea and France: Greater AI Regulation?
In early November 2023, officials from 28 countries met with leading Artificial Intelligence (AI) executives and researchers at the British estate of Bletchley Park, London, to celebrate the first AI Security Summit.
All countries signed a declaration that emphasized the risks posed by Artificial Intelligence, underlined the responsibility of AI creators to ensure the security of their systems, and committed to cooperating internationally to mitigate those risks.
The participating countries agreed to meet again in South Korea in May 2024 and in France in November 2024. At these meetings, will there be greater control and consensus on AI?
India: the most populous nation in the world at a key moment
945 million Indians are called to the polls in May for the general elections. This country that in 2023 became the most populated in the world. This election will take place in a context of deterioration in political rights and civil liberties, according to the NGO Freedom House.
The December 3 state election results gave a big boost to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The party swept the Hindi belt states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The only victory for the opposition Indian National Congress (INC, also known as the Congress Party) came in the southern state of Telangana.
The BJP, party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi , in power since 2014, is projected as the winner, according to polls. This advantage is mainly due to the enduring popularity of Prime Minister Modi.
The opposition, after two successive electoral defeats in Parliament, seems determined to learn from past failures. In July, more than two dozen opposition parties announced the creation of a new opposition party, the National Alliance for Inclusive Development of India.
As the battle for 2024 begins in earnest, it is undeniable that the BJP maintains the advantage, but will the opposition turn the tables.
The EU: a key election?
More than 400 million voters from the 27 countries of the bloc that make up the European Union are called to vote at the beginning of June to elect 720 MEPs.
This election will be a test for the new political forces opposed to the integration that the EU defends, such as the party, PVV, which won the general elections in the Netherlands in November or the Brothers of Italy formation of the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who came to power in 2022.
The election for the European Parliament will be marked by the tense debate on immigration in several countries of the bloc of 27 and the crisis in the cost of living due to inflation in the region and in the world.
Panama: a change?
2024 is born with signs of challenging the new post-pandemic fashion of the oppositions winning in Latin America .
On May 5, elections will be held in Panama. In addition to the president, Parliament will be completely renewed, local authorities will be nominated and a Constituent Assembly will be elected to reform the Magna Carta of that country.
The favorite to win the Presidency according to the polls in this case is an opponent: former president Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014), under whom allegations of corruption weigh and was even sanctioned by the United States. The current vice president, José Gabriel Carrizo, competes for the ruling party.
Panama was shaken in 2023 by enormous popular protests that paralyzed the country for weeks. The claims against the government arose from the execution of a contract between the State and a mining company.
Mexico: the first female president
A woman could become president of Mexico for the first time in June , an important symbol in that country that registers thousands of femicides per year.
The ruling party 's candidate is Claudia Sheinbaum. Former mayor of Mexico City and physicist considered the protégé of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, current President of Mexico. Sheinbaum widely leads the polls.
AMLO, who has great acceptance for his mandate according to polls, will seek to transfer some of his popularity to the candidate of Morena, the left-wing political party that he founded.
His opponent is Xóchitl Gálvez. Gálvez, representing a front that brings together three opposition parties, is a computer engineer and founder of technology companies who grew up in rural poverty and is known for her simple character, her indigenous clothing and her cycling habits around Mexico City.
Paris 2024 Olympic Games
D uring the summer of next year, the French city of Paris will host the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad, scheduled to take place from July 26 to August 11. Paris will become an even more vibrant center than it already is, as athletes and spectators from around the world gather to celebrate this festival of sport.
United States: a second round?
On November 5, tens of millions of Americans will go to the polls to choose the future occupant of the White House.
This 60th US presidential election will have the air of something already seen, as many expect a revenge contest between the outgoing Democratic president, Joe Biden , 81, and his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump , 77.
This is expected to be the most expensive election in US history, with more than $10 billion spent on political ads, according to tracking company AdImpact. Political ads themselves are the subject of growing concern over the role of artificial intelligence in creating deepfakes and spreading misinformation.
Venezuela: the end of Maduro?
Venezuela affected by a serious political and economic crisis that caused an exodus of more than seven million people. In Venezuela there is still no date for the elections, which are estimated to be in December.
The current president, Nicolás Maduro, successor to Hugo Chávez (1999-2013), is seeking a third term . His re-election in 2018, considered fraudulent, was not recognized by many countries, including the United States.
Recently, in October, the United States eased the oil embargo it applies to Venezuela for six months, and demands the lifting of the disqualification against several opponents, including Machado.
A large part of the opposition overcame years of divisions and united to support the liberal María Corina Machado. María Corina Machado, who won the internal elections held this year by the opposition. The government promised to lift the bans, but has not yet done so.
Along with these elections, we must highlight other key events that will be analyzed in a following article and will mark the year 2024.
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