The brutal and unjustified attack by the Hamas terrorist group on Israeli territory has brought an old and entrenched conflict, the Arab-Israeli or Israel-Palestine conflict, back to the drawing board.
Understanding this conflict is not easy due to its complexity, but it is key to understanding one of the reasons that explains the Hamas attack and a dynamic that has been key in the Middle East. In this conflict there are no good guys or bad guys. In this article, we will try to explain the origins and evolution of this dilemma.
To understand this conflict we must go back to the 19th century. During this century, the rise of nationalism and anti-Semitism in Europe, the idea of the search and creation of a state for the Jewish people would be born. This movement would be called “Zionism.” The father of this movement would be the Austro-Hungarian, Teodor Herzl.
Herzl covered the Dreyfus criminal trial as a correspondent for the newspaper.
Alfred Dreyfus, an assimilated French Jewish military captain, was arrested in October 1894. By the end of that year he had been tried, convicted, tried by a military court. Due to the lack of due process, his case was reopened in 1899. Dreyfus was sentenced to another 10 years in prison, until his release in 1906. This case would accelerate the attempts to create a Jewish state.
Herzl created the World Zionist Organization in 1897, where its first congress was held in the Swiss city, Basel. Although there were proposals to establish this “national home for the Jewish people” in Argentina, Madagascar or Uganda, it was decided to establish this state in the region of Palestine for religious reasons.
Likewise, Herzl helped establish the Jewish National Fund in 1901. This fund provided aid and encouraged Jewish immigration and settlement of land in Palestine.
The territory of Palestine was dominated by different empires: the Roman, Byzantine, Ottoman and British. In the 1880s, this territory was included in the so-called Greater Syria and was administratively divided into two velayats. The north dependent on Beirut and the east dependent on Syria and the sanjak (subprovince) of Jerusalem.
It was estimated that the number of inhabitants in the region of Palestine would be around 600,000 people, the vast majority Arab Muslims and other minorities, including Jews (approximately 25,000; concentrated around Jerusalem and 3 other cities). The inhabitants of this region (it was not a state) led a pastoral life due to the agricultural nature of the economy.
Starting in 1880, the economy would experience an economic boom. As a result of this economic growth, the Ottomans built a centralized State, imitating the French model.
During this decade the first aliyah would occur, due to the pogroms in Russia between 1881-1882. It is important to clarify that the Arab population perceived Zionism as another wave of European colonizers.
The Ottoman power in the area would decrease and in 1904, the second aliyah took place, where 400,000 Jews, the majority secular and socialist, would arrive in the territory of Palestine, establishing the concept of the kibbutz.
With the outbreak of World War I in 1914, this region would be involved in this war. The Ottoman Empire allied itself with the central powers (German and Austro-Hungarian Empires). The situation in the United Kingdom was complicated in the area, the Turks continued to be a great threat to British and French interests.
On the one hand, London allied itself with the Arab population, reflected in the Hussein-McMahon correspondence. London began negotiations with Hussein's family, in support of the creation of an Arab nation.
Likewise, Lawrence of Arabia would be a key figure for the United Kingdom to promote the Arab Rebellion (1916-1918). This revolt occurred between the current states of Syria and Yemen, including Palestine.
On the other hand, the United Kingdom tried to gain the sympathy of the Zionist movement. A key moment was the Balfour declaration in 1917. London supported the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine.
Diplomatic work between the Allies during World War I would lead to the Skyes-Picot agreement in 1916. France and the United Kingdom divided up the territories after the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire.
Map 1: Sykes-Picot Agreement in 1916. Source: https://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/israel/images/map-sykes-picot-1916.gif|||Map%20Sykes%20Pict%20Agreement%201916
France agreed to control southern Anatolia, Syria and Lebanon and the United Kingdom would take control of Mesopotamia, Transjordan and Palestine. This agreement restricted Arab promises and contradicted the Balfour Declaration.
After the Treaty of Sevrès in 1920 and the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire in 1922, Palestine would pass into British hands. During these decades, the mandate system was established. British diplomacy allowed Palestine to be separated from Greater Syria and Transjordan.
In 1922, the League of Nations granted London the Mandate for Palestine. Furthermore, London submitted a memorandum to the League of Nations, excluding the territory of Transjordan from the establishment of a Jewish homeland. Transjordan was administered in two entities, west of the Jordan, Palestin
Map 2: division of the British mandate in Palestine. Source: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/israel/maps-evolution.htm
Between the decade of 1920 and 1948, after the calm between 1922 and 1929, the first tensions would occur. On the one hand, Jewish immigration to Palestine did not cease, the purchase and acquisition of land by the Jewish National Fund would produce the first acts of sectarian violence on both sides. It is worth mentioning the Palestinian riots of 1929 and the great Arab revolt of 1936 to 1939.
In parallel, the Jewish population was developing key structures for the future State of Israel. An example was due to the growing insecurity and after the Nabi Musa riots (April 1920-June 1920) and Jaffa in 1921, the Haganah (defense) was born. This organization was born with the vocation of being the seed of an army and is gaining momentum.
It is important to clarify that the missions of the Haganah were defensive, but some of its members did not share that vision. In 1931, the terrorist group Irgun or Etzel was formed.
The struggles between Zionism and the British government over immigration quotas were constant. It should be mentioned that, in 1922, the population of Palestine was 757,182 inhabitants: 590,390 Muslims, 83,694 Jews, 73,024 Christians, among other minorities. However, to prevent tensions in Palestine from escalating, in the summer of 1937, the Peel Commission was published.
This commission proposed dividing the territory between two independent states, one for the Arabs and the other for the Jews. To avoid angering neighboring Arab states, a year later, the Woodhead report was drafted. In this report the territory would be divided, a Jewish one around 5,000km around Tel Aviv. Both communities rejected both plans.
Before World War II, in 1939, McDonald's White Paper was published, limiting Jewish immigration to 75,000 people in five years and the creation of a single state for both peoples in 10 years. Both communities rejected him.
During World War II, the confrontation between both communities dissipated. During these years, the United Kingdom limited the entry of new Jewish immigrants, for example, rejecting the entry of the ship Strum in 1942.
With the end of the war and the horror of the Holocaust; Jewish immigration to Palestine increases. In these years, Jewish extremists attacked the British authorities, the most significant being the attack perpetrated by the Irgun in the wing of the Kingston David Hotel (Headquarters of the Mandatory Government) in 1946.
Due to the fragility of the British Empire and to avoid further failures, in 1947, London referred the question of Palestine to the newly created United Nations (UN).
The UN established the United Nations Special Committee for Palestine, made up of 11 states, excluding great powers and the Arab states. A partition plan was drawn up into three zones: a Jewish zone (55%), an Arab zone (45%) and Jerusalem under international control.
Map 3: UN Partition Plan. Source: https://israeled.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/06-UN-Partition-Plan.jpg
In 1947, the UN adopted resolution 181, ending the British mandate in 1948 and establishing two states. This resolution was accepted by the Jews, but not by the Arabs.
On May 14, 1948, Israeli Prime Minister Ben Gurion proclaimed the State of Israel. 24 hours after this declaration, Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Iraq declare war on the newly Jewish state.
After the declaration of the State of Israel, the first Arab-Israeli war began, against the armies of Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Iraq, Lebanese elements and the Palestinians themselves. Israel won the war and new borders will be established with the 1949 armistice line, the Gaza Strip would come under Egyptian control and the West Bank administered by Jordan. Likewise, 750,000 would flee their homes to Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and other states.
Image 1: Palestinian refugees during the Arab-Israeli war in 1948. Source:https://www.lavanguardia.com/historiayvida/historia-contemporanea/20210513/7452015/cronologia-setenta-anos-conflicto-arabe-israeli.html
This episode is known as the “Nakba” (catastrophe). 160,000 Arabs did stay in the territory. In turn, between 1948 and 1972, nearly 800,000 Jews were expelled in the Middle East.
The Sinai War of 1956 for control of the Suez Canal, the 6-Day War of 1967. Israel would win both wars and after the 6-Day War it would control the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the Heights of the Golan, East Jerusalem and the West Bank.
Map 4: Israel after the 1967 war. Source:https://israeled.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/08-Israel-After-1967-War.jpg
After this war, Arab countries lost interest in fighting for the Palestinians and were more concerned with recovering their own territory. Furthermore, the pan-Arabist ideology (secular and socialist) would lose strength, and would be one of the causes of the emergence of Islamist movements in the region.
Before the 6-day war, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was formed. It is an organization formed in 1964 from the union of different political movements that fought for the rights of the Palestinian people. The PLO was founded with the fundamental objective of recovering the territories on which the State of Israel was founded.
The content of the PLO's 1964 National Pact and 1968 charter called for the destruction of Israel through armed struggle, denying the legitimacy of any Jewish presence after 1917.
During the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, the Palestine Liberation Organization fought the Israeli army through armed struggle. After defeat in 1967, the Palestinians resorted to violence. It is worth mentioning the murder of 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics or the Coast Massacre in 1978.
In the 1960s, Fatah (a political-military group founded by Yasser Arafat) had carried out a series of guerrilla attacks against Israel from Jordan. However, the growth of the group and Israel's retaliation against Jordan led King Hussein to expel the guerrillas from his country during the so-called Black September.
In 1969, the PLO appointed Yasser Arafat, the leader of Fatah, as its president. During the 1970s, Fatah guerrillas settled in Lebanon. From there they continued their fight against Israel and the PLO was directly involved in this guerrilla activity.
The relationship between the PLO and Beirut became complicated and the PLO became involved in the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990). In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon to destroy the PLO and PLO forces evacuated to Syria and Tunisia.
At the same time, after the 6-day war of 1967 and Yom Kippur of 1973, a turning point would be marked.
After 1982, in Lebanon, in stark contrast, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are stateless and more than half live in overcrowded camps. The right to work is severely restricted and mass poverty has become the norm.
On the one hand, after the Six Day War, Arab countries are less interested in fighting for the Palestinians and more concerned with recovering their own territory. Furthermore, the pan-Arabist ideology (secular and socialist) would lose strength, and would be one of the causes of the emergence of Islamist movements in the region.
On the Israeli side, controlling Jerusalem (a holy city for Jews, Christians and Muslims) has had a tremendous emotional impact. It gave Israelis the sense that their historical connections to the land of Israel are now under their control. In the 1980s, a law was passed declaring that city the eternal capital of the Jewish people.
This movement has not been recognized internationally. This rejection became a reality through UN Security Council resolution 478, as did the Palestinian claim to control the city and have it be its capital.
Israel would move towards the center right. Both Israel and the Palestinians. After this war, Israel would begin to build settlements in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. The first settlement was Kfar Etzion, created by the Israeli Labor Party. This settlement was described as a Nahal paramilitary settlement.
Over time, these settlements have grown and expanded. Since the Oslo Accords, Israeli settlements have continued to expand. At the end of 1993, there were about 116,300 Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, according to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics. Currently, there are 127 settlements (2021 data) where more than 500,000 Israelis live.
The international community, including the United Nations and the International Court of Justice, considers the settlements illegal on the basis of the Geneva Convention, which prohibits an occupying power from transferring its population to an occupied territory. Furthermore, the settlements are a major obstacle to any future agreement.
After 1973, Tel Aviv began to prioritize negotiations with the Arab states, traditional allies of Palestine. In 1979, Israel and Egypt signed the Camp David peace accords. Egypt regained the Sinai in exchange for Israel's recognition. A path that Jordan later followed (1994) and, more recently, with the Abraham Accords - the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco (2020).
Map 5: recognition of Israel in the Arab and Muslim world. Source:https://elordenmundial.com/mapas-y-graficos/reconocimiento-israel-mundo-arabe-musulman/
In the treaty with Egypt, Israel promised autonomy for the Arabs living in Gaza and the West Bank. Autonomy meant granting them management of all areas, except defense and foreign relations. During the 1980s, two Islamist terrorist groups emerged, the main enemies of Israel: Hezbollah (1982) and Hamas (1989).
In 1987, the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank rose up against the Israeli authorities. This uprising is known as “the first Intifada.” The 1st Intifada was a spontaneous demonstration against the government due to the harsh living conditions imposed on them.
At first the PLO remained on the sidelines, but as events developed the PLO became directly involved. This support legitimized Arafat's figure and activity. At the same time, Hamas would adopt a more radical and uncompromising position.
In November 1988, during a meeting of the Palestinian National Council in Algiers, Arafat announced the establishment of the Independent State of Palestine and accepted United Nations resolutions 242 and 338. Both resolutions demanded peace between the State of Israel and the Palestinians.
After this decision the PLO would change its strategy and abandon the path of destroying the State of Israel. This move allowed Arafat to gain international support.
During Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the PLO sided with Iraq. This position had consequences, since the Gulf Monarchies, the main benefactors, would reduce their financial contribution to Palestine. Likewise, the international community changed its attitude towards the PLO.
To change this dynamic, the PLO began secret negotiations with Israel. In 1991, the three-day Madrid Middle East Peace Conference took place, marking a historic advance in Arab-Israeli diplomacy. It broke the taboo that prevented Arab, Palestinian and Israeli states from meeting in public. The result of these negotiations was the Oslo Accords of 1994.
Image 2: signing of the Oslo agreements. Source:https://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/30/opinion/global/oslo-20-years-later.html
Under the Oslo Accords, the following conditions were established:
The Palestinian Authority was created legally and with international recognition as the government of the new State.
Mutual recognition between the Palestinian Authority and Israel and vice versa.
Another of the important agreements agreed upon during the Oslo Accords included taking preventive measures against acts of terrorism and hostilities between both states.
Withdrawal or redeployment of Israeli security forces in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Immediate transfer of authority to the Palestinians in education, health, social welfare, taxation and tourism.
Democratic elections for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Coordination agreements between the PLO and Israel on security and economic development
The guarantee of resolving the rest of the generally more controversial issues before May 1999: Jerusalem, borders, refugees and settlements.
After the signing of these agreements, only a third of [Palestinian] public opinion continues to support the Oslo agreement today, while it used to be at 70% in the weeks and months after its signing.
On May 4, 1994, an agreement concluded in Cairo provided for the first phase of withdrawal of Israeli security forces and their transfer of authority to the newly created Palestinian Authority. Within a few weeks the withdrawal from the cities of Gaza and Jericho was completed.
Negotiations continued despite attempts by religious nationalists on both sides to disrupt the process established by the Oslo I agreement. On September 28, 1995, Rabin, Peres and Arafat signed the Oslo II Accords (formally the Israeli Interim Agreement -Palestinian on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip), which details the expansion of Palestinian self-government to population centers other than Gaza and Jericho.
Both Israel and Palestine under the Oslo II Agreement divided the Israeli-occupied West Bank into three administrative divisions: Areas A, B and C. The different areas were assigned different status, according to their governance pending a settlement agreement final status.
Elections for a president and a council to govern the PA, including the participation of Palestinians in Jerusalem in the electoral process.
The redeployment of Israeli security forces from the cities of Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm, Qalqilyah, Ramallah and Bethlehem, as well as some 440 villages, before the elections were held.
Delimitation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip into three types of territory during the provisional period:
Area A (18%) is administered exclusively by the Palestinian National Authority.
Area B (22%) is administered by both the Palestinian Authority and Israel.
Area C (72-74%), which contains Israeli settlements, is administered by Israel. Part of Area C was intended to be handed over to the Palestinians at the end of 1999. Israel promised to redeploy its troops from Areas A and B before the elections. This status around the West Bank and Jerusalem has hindered peace attempts, along with more circumstances.
Map 6: delimitation of the West Bank into 3 areas under the Oslo II Accords. Source:https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/11/18/actualidad/1574105051_948135.html
During this period, the Israeli economy would begin an economic boom and would become a technological and energy power.
Starting in the 2010s, the Tamar and Leviathan sites were discovered off the Israeli coast. These deposits would turn Israel into an energy exporter. It should be mentioned that, in 2019, Israel began exporting natural gas to Egypt and Jordan. In 2021, the Emirati investment fund, Mubadala, acquired 21% of the Tamar field. This was the largest economic operation between the United Arab Emirates and Israel.
In the case of Palestine, in 1993, the international donor community (nations and institutions) met in Washington to mobilize support for the peace process and committed to providing approximately $2.4 billion to the Palestinians over the next few years. five years. It should be mentioned that, since 1993, the European Commission and the EU member states have been by far the largest contributor of aid to the Palestinians.
However, this money allocated to the construction of infrastructure and the development of an industrialized economy; did not serve to improve life in the West Bank. That is partly due to PLO mismanagement and internal corruption.
With these agreements, the Arab states began to negotiate with Israel. But the terrorist organization Hamas would oppose it, forging a greater fracture within Palestine.
However, extremists on both sides attempted to thwart any peace. Hamas would commit attacks against the Israeli population and Israeli extremists carried out attacks, such as the Hebron Massacre in 1994. A year later, Israeli Prime Minister Isaac Rabin was assassinated at the hands of a Jewish extremist. This would break any semblance of peace.
In 1996, Benjamin Netanyahu won elections in Israel and accelerated settlement construction in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. In 1997, Israeli military forces redeploy from the city of Hebron. In 2005, Israel handed over the city of Jericho to the Palestinian National Authority. However, in 1999, Ehud Barak, Netanyahu's successor, removed troops from southern Lebanon and negotiated with the Palestinian National Authority in 2000, without success.
A year later, in 2001, at the Taba Summit, Israel offered terms for peace, but without success due to disagreements over Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees.
The failure of the Oslo Accords, the settlements and the poor economic management of the PLO would trigger the Second Intifada (2000-2005).
Image 3: Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli soldiers near Ramallah during the second Intifada, October 2000. Source: https://www.lavanguardia.com/historiayvida/historia-contemporanea/20210513/7452015/cronologia-setenta-anos-conflicto-arabe-israeli.html#foto-5
During this period, there were intense clashes between Palestinians and Israelis. Hamas and other militant groups carried out military attacks and suicide bombings against Israeli civilian and military targets. Meanwhile, the PLO maintained a lower profile.
In the years that followed, nearly 5,000 Palestinians and more than 1,100 Israelis died. Although there were a large number of Palestinian attacks against Israelis, the most effective form of violence by Palestinians was suicide bombings. The failure of the Oslo peace and the active role of Hamas during the Intifada would cause Palestinian popular support for Hamas to increase by 17%.
After the Netanya Massacre in 2002, Israel occupied the West Bank again and began in 2002 the construction of a separation wall between Israel and the West Bank. This wall has been condemned internationally.
However, diplomacy was also present. In 2003, during the Summit in Sharm el Sheikh, in which the international community tries to advance a peace initiative known as the "Road Map", which would lead to the creation of a Palestinian State in the West Bank and Gaza. This summit marked the debut of Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas on the international scene.
In 2004, Yasser Arafat would die weakening the PLO in favor of Hamas. The following year, in 2005, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and King Abdullah II of Jordan negotiate a ceasefire. In addition, Sharon withdraws Israeli settlements from the Gaza Strip.
The following year, in 2006, Hamas capitalized on the PLO's management errors and the use of violence. Hamas wins the Palestinian legislative elections. Hamas won 76 seats and Fatah only 43. Hamas took over the administration of Gaza following its electoral victory and during 2006-2007, a coalition government was formed across Gaza between Fatah and Hamas.
Since 2006, Hamas begins launching rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israel and Tel Aviv under Operation Summer Rain carried out a series of bombings. During these tensions, Hezbollah attacked northern Israel, triggering the 2006 Lebanon War.
The division between Hamas and Fatah would increase, triggering a civil war. Hamas kicked Fatah out of the Gaza Strip and Fatah would rule the West Bank. This would economically and politically divide Palestine in two, to this day.
Since 2007, the Gaza Strip has been under a land, air and sea blockade by Israel and Egypt. Israel has launched four major military strikes against Gaza - in 2008-2009, 2012, 2014 and 2021 - to destroy Hamas's military capabilities.
Both Hamas and Fatah have tried to reconcile without success in the 2007 agreements in Mecca to form a coalition government, or those of 2011, 2014 and 2017. This internal division would weaken the Palestinian position and in part the two-state solution. Also, as a result of this division, presidential elections have not been called since 2006.
During these decades, Israel would continue to advance in settlement construction and the number of Israeli settlers. As of 2023, some 475,000 Israelis reside in settlements in the West Bank. For many religious nationalist Jews, living in the biblical lands of Judea and Samaria (the name given by Israelis to the West Bank) represents the fulfillment of a divine promise. There are numerous episodes of violence between Israelis and Palestinians. This hinders the development of the economy in the West Bank.
Image 4: A road runs between the Jewish settlement of Givat Zeev (in the background) and Palestinian villages near the West Bank city of Ramallah. Source:https://www.npr.org/2023/10/27/1208694837/two-state-solution-israeli-palestinian-conflict
Between 2000 and 2005, for example, data show that there was an economic decline of 17 percent (from 58 percent to 41 percent) in the share of sales of West Bank companies outside their business areas; due to Israeli checkpoints and merchandise restriction.
Employment opportunities within the settlements are incredibly limited. On average, 60% of the employed population in a settlement is employed in Israel.
The settlements also change Israel's security policy. This requires a massive deployment of troops to protect civilians in a territory whose majority population is hostile to them. More than half of the active IDF troops are stationed in the West Bank, 80% of which defend settlements and ensure their security; troops confronting Israeli settlers.
Israel collects taxes on behalf of the Palestinian Authority and has a policy of retaining some tax revenue. At the same time, over time, the economies of Israel and the West Bank have narrowed.
According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PBCS), some 120,000 Palestinians work in Israel, 20,000 of them in Israeli settlements, although only half have official work permits. Furthermore, the Palestinian Authority's main trading partner is Israel, followed by the European Union. The situation in the Gaza Strip is worse, falling far behind the West Bank.
Since 2011 and the regional conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Israel would be getting closer to the current Arab states, traditional allies of Palestine. At the same time, the Palestinian cause would lose importance compared to other dynamics and the two-state solution would also become overshadowed compared to other solutions.
At the end of January 2020, Donald Trump, with the support of Benjamin Netanyahu, made a proposal for the creation of a Palestinian state with its capital outside the ancient city of Jerusalem. They were also offered certain territories in the West Bank in exchange for recognizing notable locations of Jewish settlers. The response of the Palestinian people has been that of total rejection. This plan would be rejected by the Palestinians.
Map 7: peace proposal by former US president, Donald Trump. Source:https://www.ultimahora.com/plan-paz-trump-favorece-israel-y-limita-soberania-palestina-n2867253
In recent years, the Palestinian cause has lost weight in international politics. The war in Ukraine and its media focus have taken the dynamics of the region and the tensions between Israelis and Palestinians to another level. It should be noted that young people on both sides suggest that they are much less in favor of a two-state solution than previous generations.
A Gallup poll released last week conducted before the Hamas attack on Israel found that only 24% of Palestinians living in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem support a two-state solution. This figure is lower than the 59% in 2012.
A Pew Research Center poll released in September found that only 35% of Israelis believe "a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully," a decline of 15 percentage points since 2013.
Likewise, Israel has improved relations with different Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, among others in 2020. Under US mediation, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are bringing closer positions with Israel. The normalization of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv would change the regional dynamics.
On the one hand, within Israel, after the electoral repetition, Benjamin Netanyahu managed to revalidate the position of prime minister, placing Jewish supremacists, such as Itamar Ben Gvir or Bezalem Smotrich, in key positions. The judicial reform proposed by Netanyahu has led to sectors of civil society and the military in Israel taking to the streets in protest and impacting the Israeli economy.
In the months leading up to Saturday's surprise attack, clashes had increased between Israeli forces and Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank and to a lesser extent in the Gaza Strip. Also, there have been terrorist attacks in Israel. Including when a Palestinian gunman shot dead seven people near a synagogue in January this year.
Due to the brutal attack carried out by the terrorist group Hamas, this conflict has returned to the international stage and could also call into question the Israeli economic miracle. The cost of the war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist group is estimated to be at least NIS 27 billion ($6.8 billion) or 1.5% of GDP.
On the one hand, it could endanger or freeze ties between Israel and the different Arab states. An example of this has been the Saudi brake on normalizing ties with Israel.
On the other hand, the retaliatory response to the attack carried out by Hamas with a possible Israeli military intervention within Gazan territory could escalate into a regional conflict.
However, with the passage of time and this attack, it has shown that the two-state solution is in question.
The Palestinian government in the West Bank is the empty shell of a real and effective government. The Palestinian Authority has become a failed democracy with a weak and ineffective leader who has remained in office for too long. The evolution in this region and this conflict is marking the dynamics in the Middle East and on the board of the superpowers.
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