Recently, Turkey held a presidential election that could mean a change in Turkish domestic and foreign policy, having an impact not only on this state, but also on NATO, the EU and the Middle East.
In 2017, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerged victorious in a referendum. Following this referendum, Turkey transitioned to a presidentialist regime, half of the members of the Constitutional Court were given the ability to decide and lengthened the presidential term from four to five years, and increased authoritarianism of the president.
Last February 6, there was an earthquake in the southeast of this state, which left more than 50,000 deaths, millions of dollars in damages and endless criticism of the government for its management of the emergency. It should also be added that the economic difficulties seriously affecting the country with very high inflation and a permanent devaluation of the Turkish currency have eroded the popularity of the Turkish President, Recep Tayip Erdogan.
In addition, the entire opposition agreed that Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the CHP (Republican People's Party), the main opposition party, would be the challenger in the face of Erdogan's apparent electoral weakness. Most polls had Kilicdaroglu as the winner of the election. However, against the odds, on May 28, Erdogan won re-election with 52% of the vote, compared to 48% for his challenger. This article will shed more details on Erdogan's victory and what the impact of his re-election will be.
One of the main reasons for this victory was the appointment of Kiliçdaroglu.
On the one hand, Erdogan employed state resources to attract voters with measures such as: free domestic gas, wage increases, tax cuts and affordable loans. He also resorted to a campaign targeting minorities such as the LGBTQ community and disseminated doctored images linking Kiliçdaroglu to terrorists.
Kilicdaroglu made some major mistakes along the way. His campaign team focused solely on marketing strategies and underestimated the importance of public participation. At the same time, he opted for populism, making high-sounding promises such as raising wages, promising visa-free access to EU Europe for Turkish citizens within three months. However, he was unable to give clear answers on economic policy without being able to convince voters on economic policy.
Another key aspect was Kilicdaroglu's unofficial alliance with the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). According to Ankara it shares ideological ties with Kurdish armed groups labeled as terrorists by Turkey. Erdogan took advantage of this opportunity and even screened doctored videos of Kilicdaroglu's campaign, province by province, showing endorsements by PKK leaders.
Along with this, the third key has been the alliance with the ultra-nationalist candidate, Sinan Ogan. Sinan Ogan came third in the first round of the presidential election with 5.2% of the vote. Ogan attracted more than 3 million votes from people who disapproved of Erdogan's policies, but did not want to support Kiliçdaroglu.
This alliance and support of Ogan to Erdogan came with 4 red lines:
1- First of all, the first four articles of the Constitution are untouchable. They say that Turkey is a democratic, secular, unitary state, whose official language is Turkish. Ogan defends a secular state and voted against the current presidentialist system in Turkey.
2- Secondly, Ogan demands that Syrians return to their country. Some four million displaced Syrians live in Turkey. Erdogan, because of his agreements with the European Union, opposes this measure.
3- Ogan demands a 180-degree turnaround in economic policy. Year-on-year inflation exceeded 100% in April, according to independent agencies, and the Turkish central bank has lowered rates instead of raising them. Meanwhile, the lira has depreciated by 80% in five years.
4- Ogan refuses to have anything to do with the Kurds, neither moderates nor the PKK, as he considers them all terrorists.
In the first round, the opposition denounced an attempt by the government to block the recount and the suspicion of irregularities. Likewise, the OSCE, while maintaining that the elections were competitive, pointed to an unjustified advantage in favor of Erdogan.
During the second round, Kiliçdaroglu lacked an effective strategy, cementing Erdogan's victory.
Kilicdaroglu waited four days after the failure of the first round, and resorted to becoming an ultra-nationalist leader opposed to refugees. However, despite the opposition leader hardening his discourse and even promising to send "home" all Syrian refugees if he came to power, Ogan, allied with Erdogan, was a key alliance that would determine Erdogan's victory.
This strategic pivot by Kiliçdaroglu in the runoff implied a key abstention in the Kurdish-majority southeast. There was a significant drop in turnout of between 5 and 8 percent.
After pledging to form a new government with seven vice presidents, Kiliçdaroglu failed to present himself as a politician capable of addressing Turkey's pressing problems.
Results of the second round of the 2023 Turkish Presidential Election. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2023/may/28/turkey-election-results-presidential-vote-round-two
Sunday, May 28 elections in Turkey resulted in a new victory for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with 52% of the vote, winning the presidency for another five years.
However, Erdogan faces two key challenges. On the one hand, Turkey could face a new economic collapse later this year, which would again trigger inflation and wreak havoc on its balance of payments. After the elections, the Turkish lira again lost value against the US dollar and the euro. The country has already suffered a historic collapse of its currency at the end of 2021 and inflation of over 85% last year.
On the other hand, next year, municipal elections, key for Erdogan, will be held. In the main cities, Istanbul and Ankara, Erdogan will have to change his economic and monetary policy and focus on reducing the cost of living and accelerating the repatriation of Syrian asylum seekers.
In international policy, the Turkish president will prioritize resuming regional normalization and repairing Turkey's relations with the US and the EU, and will seek closer cooperation with Russia in several areas. Both economic data, foreign policy, and the upcoming 2024 elections will mark the first years for Erdogan and the direction of Turkey.
Suggested readings:
1- Factbox: Turkey’s new government: Key figures in Erdogan’s Cabinet (2023) Reuters. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-new-government-key-figures-erdogans-cabinet-2023-06-03/
2- Gil Iglesias, D. (2023) Turquía: Cinco Años más de Erdogan, The Political Room. Available at: https://thepoliticalroom.com/turquia-cinco-anos-mas-de-erdogan/
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