The terrorist group, Hamas, launched an unprecedented and brutal attack on Israel from Gaza, murdering, raping and kidnapping dozens of military personnel and civilians.
Last Saturday, October 7, the terrorist group, Hamas, which has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, launched a massive attack against Israel. Its members infiltrated and conquered Israeli territory, surprising the Israeli army and the world. This attack coincided with the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
This attack was not only a shock to Israeli society, but also to a large part of the world. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "I know that you have experienced terrible times. What Hamas will experience will be hard and terrible. We are already in the middle of the battle and we have only just begun".
The coordinated attack by Hamas took Israel by surprise, in a black episode in the recent history of this state.
This attack could jeopardize years of progress in bilateral relations between Israel and several Arab states. It also comes after months of worsening tensions over violence.
In the months leading up to Saturday's surprise attack, clashes had increased between Israeli forces and Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank and to a lesser extent in the Gaza Strip. Also, there have been terrorist attacks in Israel. Including when a Palestinian gunman shot dead seven people near a synagogue in January of this year.
Aside from the question of why Israeli intelligence services did not prevent the attack, this article wants to unpack why this attack happened at this time and its repercussions. To understand why this attack occurred, there are three reasons: geopolitical, the Palestinian cause and internal Israeli division.
The first objective of Hamas is geopolitical. It seeks to embarrass Arab countries and torpedo normalization agreements with Israel. Since 2020, under the Abraham Accords the: Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco established ties with Israel. Others, such as Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, are moving closer to the Israeli government.
This change of position is due to pressure from the United States, but also because Israel is an attractive commercial partner to buy weapons and technology from. This rapprochement was leaving aside the Palestinian cause, a key issue for the Arab world, especially for the civilian population. The fuse that led to this was the rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which would change the geopolitics of the region. Riyadh is the hegemon of the Sunni Arab world and hosts 2 of Islam's holy sites. Torpedoing this agreement has been a key objective.
The second reason is the Palestinian cause itself. Palestine is divided into two parts: the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Gaza is a narrow strip of land wedged between Israel and Egypt, controlled by Hamas since 2007. Its more than 2 million residents have endured a border blockade imposed to varying degrees by Israel and Egypt.
Over the past few years, the Palestinian cause has lost weight in international politics. The war in Ukraine and its media spotlight has pushed the dynamics of the region and the tensions between Israelis and Palestinians into the background. It is important to note the following clarification.
The Palestinians are governed by two warring factions. On the one hand, the terrorist group Hamas. This group is recognized as a terrorist group by the US, the EU and other states and does not recognize the State of Israel. It is also not an internationally recognized interlocutor for Palestine. The Iranian-backed group has used explosives and rockets, along with suicide bombings and kidnappings, to attack Israel. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran was able to meet with Hamas and Hezbollah officials to plan the attack.
On the other hand, there is the Fatah-led Palestine Liberation Organization, which governs the West Bank and recognizes Israel and is not Islamist. Fatah also has an internal conflict with Hamas over the leadership of Palestine. Fatah has collaborated with Israel and this cooperative stance of the PLO is increasingly criticized among Palestinians. In addition, corruption and the failure to hold Palestinian elections since 2005 has led to increased criticism of the PLO.
Hamas has lost weight and support within the Palestinian population, especially in the Gaza Strip. In Gaza, there have been recent protests and alternative militias, which are strongly repressed. This attack would make it possible to regain internal weight and humiliate Israel. It should be mentioned that 53% of Palestinians believe that armed struggle is the best way to end the Israeli occupation, compared to only 20% who prefer negotiations.
The last motive is international support and internal weakness in Israel. Following the internal division and repeat elections in Israel, Jewish supremacists, such as Itamar Ben Gvir, who were once marginal have been given key positions in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right government, further exacerbating tensions.
To this, Israel's government has planned to change legislation to change the way the Israeli judicial system functions and control the judiciary. Thousands of people (civilians and military) have taken to the streets against the executive's proposal across the country.
On the one hand, this attack shows Israel that it is not invulnerable and can be humiliated, and that there will be no peace as long as "the occupation" continues. It also opens an internal rift in Israel.
On the other hand, Israel will respond harshly to this attack and an Israeli ground invasion of the strip is not ruled out, which could provoke international condemnation against Israel and undermine support for Israel, especially in the European Union, the US and certain Arab states (United Arab Emirates, Morocco, among others). The forcefulness and response to the Hamas attack could jeopardize the survival of the Abraham Accords and strike a blow to Israel.
This attack hurts the US and the EU. Washington has been mediating between Israel and several Arab states for years, and was hoping for Saudi recognition of Israel. This possible negotiation and recognition would unite these two powers vis-à-vis Iran and allow Washington to concretize its efforts in China. On the EU side, if the conflict is prolonged or escalates it would destabilize the EU and could cause further internal division over waves of refugees.
Likewise, this attack and the start of a new war has caused energy prices (gas and crude oil) to rise and the closure of an Israeli gas field (Tamar).
On the one hand, the price of gas, which is traded in the form of TTF (Title Transfer Facility), has risen by up to 12%. On the other hand, the Brent barrel has risen nearly 4% in just a few hours and analysts expect it to tighten again in the coming weeks. The barrel has climbed to 86 euros.
Time will tell if this attempt will allow this attack to escalate in greater intensity, altering the geopolitics of the Middle East and other regions.
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